Uganda is one of the most successful countries in Africa in reducing the prevalence of HIV/AIDS significantly from 18% (1992) to 6.4 % (2005) over the last two decades. The 2004/05 Ministry of Health National HIV Sero and Behavioural Survey (NHSBS) established that for both sexes, HIV prevalence is highest among those aged 30-34 and lowest in the 15-19 years age category. This represents an upward shift in age of highest prevalence over the last two decades. Ugandan adults living in urban areas are almost twice as likely to be HIV infected compared to their counterparts in rural areas, in Kampala City alone the prevalence rate is as high as 8.5%. There are significant regional disparities, with the Northern regions affected by conflict at 8.3% and Central at 8.6% respectively, and the lowest at 2.3% in West Nile region. In addition, women have higher prevalence of HIV across all age categories and regions of the country (7.3% of women have HIV compared to 5.2% of men aged 15-59 years).
It is estimated that, 1 million people are currently infected and with approximately 130,000 new infections annually (100,000 infections are adults). The rate of new infections each year has been rising in some age groups. This has potentially devastating consequences on the economy, labour supply and productivity, overall production, revenues, and impact on families and communities. It is generally argued that the epidemic is likely to have devastating consequences for the overall economic development of Uganda, and that these consequences are likely to be felt in the future due to the impact of the skill loses.
It should be noted that while it is government’s policy to ensure universal and free access to Antiretroviral Treatment to all who need it, (MOH June 2004), providing care and treatment for the 1 million people estimated to be HIV positive obviously poses a major challenge to the government, to communities and households.
At the same time caring for more than 2 million orphans who probably require special services and care if they are to reach their full potential as adults is another daunting concern.
There is therefore, the need for an adequately researched study of the macroeconomic impact of AIDS backed by empirical evidence. The proposed macro-economic assessment needs to take into account, not only the impact of AIDS on the economy but also the consequences of increased investment in HIV and AIDS response on economic stability.
Development objectives
The purpose of the project is to provide a quantitative /qualitative and up to-date analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the AIDS pandemic. The project will also establish opportunity cost of increasing investment in HIV/AIDS sector and policy implications to inform planning and budgeting. In addition, the assessment will recommend measures and build national consensus in order to mitigate the impact.
Activities & expected results
The project supports the macro-economic assessment of impact of HIV and AIDS on the economy and consensus building and advocacy campaigns for HIV and AIDS response. It is envisaged that outcomes of the project will more specifically; inform the national and district budget processes, the operationalization of the new National Strategic Plan (NSP) on HIV/AIDS response 2007-2011, PEAP review process and its revision due 2008, Mainstreaming agenda of HIV/AIDS in sectors and district plans, the different development partners and Government cooperation frameworks. Feed into the joint evaluation by Government, UN system and other development partners at mid point of the UNDAF period (2006-2010) and inform the Uganda AIDS Commission and Civil Society Organizations advocacy campaigns for HIV and AIDS response in the country.
Implementation phase
The project is being implemented in a phased manner; the first phase being literature review from Uganda and the region on existing micro economic and macro-economic studies and models, Selected number of micro-economic studies/survey and aggregated macro-economic analysis. At every phase a number of consultative and validation meetings/workshops are being held involving key government policy makers and dvelopment partners to buidl consensus on the project outcomes. Phase one of the project is complete and started on phase two.
